In January, a French-inspired estate at 6415 E. Exeter Blvd. went on the market for $18.5 million. According to the Phoenix Business Journal story republished by KTAR, a bidding war started right away. "We had five interested parties," the listing broker said. "The first offer opened at $14 million and it ran up from there." It ran up to $17.1 million, all cash. That set a record for Arcadia and worked out to $2,027.51 a square foot for an 8,434-square-foot home on nearly an acre.
The record still closed about 7.6% below the asking price.
Five bidders competed hard, and the seller still accepted less than the list price. Both statements are true at once, and buyers and sellers in Arcadia should expect to see that again.
What "Skewed Towards Buyers" Measures
On September 30, 2026, Phoenix New Times reported on a ConsumerAffairs study of buyer's and seller's markets by ZIP code. It found that Moon Valley and Ahwatukee favored sellers, while "Melrose, Coronado, and Arcadia skewed towards buyers."
The study itself covers sales from April through June 2026 and scores each ZIP on five inputs:
- months of supply
- sale-to-list ratio
- share of homes sold above list
- median days on market
- share of listings with price drops
All five measure leverage at the moment of sale: how long a home waits, how close it gets to asking, how often the seller cuts the price. Price growth is not one of the inputs. A ZIP can rank as buyer-friendly in a year when its prices rise quickly, as long as homes sit longer and sell under list. In Arcadia's case, that's what happened.
Two Readings of the Same ZIP Code
Phoenix REALTORS publishes a monthly market update for ZIP 85018, the Phoenix side of Arcadia, drawn from ARMLS data. The September 2026 report, current as of October 3, gives two very different pictures depending on which column you read.
| 85018 single-family | September 2026 | Change from Sept. 2025 | Year to date through Sept. 2026 | Change from 2025 YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Closed sales | 26 | +4.0% | 339 | +18.1% |
| Median sales price | $1,442,500 | +0.2% | $1,700,000 | +15.3% |
| Average sales price | $1,585,412 | -11.1% | $2,143,231 | +18.0% |
| Days on market | 98 | +24.1% | 82 | +7.9% |
| Percent of list price received | 95.2% | -1.0% | 96.1% | -0.2% |
| Pending sales | 21 | -36.4% | 326 | +12.4% |
Through the first nine months of 2026, closings rose 18.1% and the median price rose 15.3% to $1.7 million. That reads like a seller's year. In September alone, a home took 98 days to sell, sellers received 95.2% of their final list price, and new contracts fell by more than a third from a year earlier. That reads like a buyer's season. The ConsumerAffairs label and the price chart are measuring different things, and both are accurate.
Why a 26-Sale Month Moves the Median So Much
The September median barely changed while the September average fell 11.1%. Prices did not fall 11% in thirty days. Twenty-six closings is a small sample. A few high-end sales landing in one month, or slipping into the next, can move the average by hundreds of thousands of dollars. The report says so itself: percent changes "can sometimes look extreme due to small sample size."
Arcadia's top end is busy enough to cause these swings. In the June 29 roundup of the most expensive homes bought in metro Phoenix, The Arizona Republic reported that a Phoenix-side Arcadia home with a pickleball court sold for $8.3 million in mid-June. In September, KTAR reported that Two Hawks Design + Build had finished a 9,388-square-foot estate at 5626 E. Montecito Ave. for the firm's founders and put it up for private sale at $23.5 million. That is about $2,500 a square foot, and it would set a neighborhood record if it sold near that price. That figure is an asking price. The latest report on the listing, KTAR's September 18 update, records no sale.
Sales like these can lift a quarter's median or average, and the next month can look soft by comparison. For anyone pricing a home, the year-to-date column is the steadier guide. For anyone timing an offer, the latest month matters more.
Pending Sales Show the Change First
Closed sales show contracts that were signed one to two months earlier. Pending sales show what buyers are signing now, so they change first. In 85018, single-family pendings fell to 21 in September 2026, down from 33 a year earlier. Across the City of Phoenix, pendings fell 37.3% over the same period, so Arcadia's slowdown matches the city's.
Arcadia's pace is slower than the city's, though. In September 2026, Phoenix single-family homes sold in a median 68 days, received 97.9% of list, and had 3.9 months of supply. In 85018, homes took 98 days, received 95.2% of list, and had 181 homes for sale, or 5.1 months of supply. In dollar terms, a gap of a few percentage points from list is large. On a home listed at $1.5 million, 95.2% comes to $1,428,000, which leaves $72,000 on the table.
That gap is the buyer leverage the ConsumerAffairs score picked up. Buyers have it now because the latest homes are taking longer to sell and closing further below list. Prices for the year have not fallen.
One Neighborhood, Two Cities, Two ZIP Codes
Any ZIP-level label only partly describes Arcadia, because Arcadia doesn't fit inside one ZIP. The Exeter Boulevard record sale was reported as an Arcadia home in Scottsdale. On September 21, 2026, The Arizona Republic reported a $7.5 million Scottsdale Arcadia sale among the week's priciest metro Phoenix closings. The paper's photo gallery places the 6,149-square-foot home on "the Scottsdale side of the Arcadia neighborhood," with Camelback Mountain views and a guesthouse.
The Scottsdale side falls largely in ZIP 85251, which also includes Old Town condos. In September 2026, 85251 single-family homes had a median price of $830,000, sold in a median 67 days, and received 96.7% of list. Condos and townhomes in the same ZIP took 114 days to sell, with 7.2 months of supply. Those figures describe a very different market from an Arcadia estate street.
The same thing happens inside 85018. Attached homes there had only 4 pending sales in September 2026, against 15 a year earlier, and took 94 days to sell. A ZIP-wide score blends condos and townhomes with acre-lot estates. A buyer comparing Arcadia with another neighborhood needs figures for the specific streets and property type, with condos and townhomes separated out.
How the Numbers Play Out in a Deal
Back to Exeter Boulevard. The opening offer came in about $4.5 million under list, and five buyers then pushed the price up $3.1 million in cash. The seller got a record, and the buyers still paid less than the list price. Arcadia's high end in 2026 is a market where buyers really do compete with each other and also have real room to negotiate on price.
For a seller, the list price starts the bidding at this level. The 2026 price gains don't guarantee the asking price. With September homes closing at 95.2% of list after 98 days, the first weeks on market and the first offers decide the outcome more than the number on the listing.
For a buyer, falling pendings and a five-month supply mean this fall has more choice and more time than spring did. The homes that drew five bidders this year were the hardest to replace: larger lots, coveted streets, Camelback views. Those homes have not gotten cheaper. Buyers have the most leverage on the rest of the market.
A Few Questions Worth Answering
Did Arcadia prices fall in 2026? In 85018, they rose. The single-family median through September 2026 was $1.7 million, up 15.3% from the same period in 2025. The September median was essentially flat year over year.
Which period does the buyer's-market label cover? The ConsumerAffairs study covers sales from April through June 2026, and its score is built on negotiation measures such as months of supply, sale-to-list ratio and price drops.
Are the September numbers the latest? The 85018 and 85251 updates for September 2026 were current as of October 3. With so few sales in one month, compare each new monthly release with the year-to-date column.
If you're weighing an Arcadia purchase or sale this season, one ZIP-wide label won't tell you much. What matters is how homes on your street and at your price have been closing against list. Racquel Miller prepares street-level pricing reviews for Arcadia sellers and buyers, sorted by lot size, location within the neighborhood and recent closings. Let's Connect.
